Roanoke Rapids — Fiscal Scenario Dashboard FY2027

Data source: All department figures from Budget Ordinance No. 2025.20 (June 17, 2025). FY27 = FY26 × 2.5% inflation (COLA + LGERS rate increases effective July 1, 2026 per City Manager Traynham budget message). Proposed scenario: eliminate police (no sheriff contract), cut tax rate 10% ($0.641→$0.577), create $2M/yr infrastructure fund for parks, roads & library.

FY27 Total Revenue

$18.95M

Balanced at $0.641 rate

Ad Valorem (FY27)

$8.98M

$1.42B assessed · 98.5% collect.

Police Dept (adj)

$4.73M

▲ from FY26 $4.62M (+2.5%)

Tax Cut Revenue Loss

-$897K

$0.641 → $0.577 · 6.4¢ drop

Net Freed Resources

$3.84M

Police savings − tax cut

Infrastructure Fund

$2.0M

Parks · Roads · Library

Proposed Surplus

$454K

vs −$1.38M current deficit

Debt Service FY27

$952K

Theatre Bond (thru FY32)

Top Revenue Sources

FY26 vs FY27 Revenue Sources

FY26 adopted vs FY27 projected — top 7 accounts

Proposed Expenditure Allocation

After police dissolution · $2M infra fund added · no sheriff contract

10-Year Outlook

Revenue vs. Expenditure — Both Scenarios FY2027–2036

2% annual revenue growth · 2.5% cost inflation · solid = revenue · dashed = expenditure

📋 Infrastructure Fund Reduction Schedule

The infrastructure fund begins at $2,000,000 in FY2027 and decreases by $250,000 per year until reaching the $1,000,000 floor in FY2031, after which it increases at the 2.5% annual inflation rate. This schedule preserves the proposed surplus in every year while returning resources to taxpayers as the city stabilizes.

Fiscal Year	Infra Fund	Proposed Revenue	Proposed Expenditure	Annual Surplus	Fund Status
FY2027	$2.000M	$18.054M	$17.600M	+$454K	Reducing
FY2028	$1.750M	$18.415M	$17.740M	+$675K	Reducing
FY2029	$1.500M	$18.783M	$17.890M	+$893K	Reducing
FY2030	$1.250M	$19.159M	$18.049M	+$1109K	Reducing
FY2031	$1.000M	$19.542M	$18.219M	+$1323K	Floor Hit
FY2032	$1.025M	$19.933M	$18.675M	+$1258K	Reducing
FY2033	$1.000M	$20.331M	$19.091M	+$1240K	Inflating
FY2034	$1.025M	$20.738M	$19.568M	+$1170K	Reducing
FY2035	$1.000M	$21.153M	$20.007M	+$1146K	Inflating
FY2036	$1.025M	$21.576M	$20.507M	+$1069K	Reducing
10-Year Total	$12.575M			+$10.337M

Structural Deficit: FY27 inflation-adjusted expenditures of $20.33M exceed the $18.95M revenue budget by $1.38M — consistent with the FY26 ordinance requiring a $748K fund balance transfer. The proposed dissolution scenario brings expenditures to $17.60M, producing a +$454K surplus while cutting the tax rate 10%.

Side-by-Side Comparison

🏛️ Current Budget (FY27 adj · +2.5%)

Total Revenue$18,950,664

Ad Valorem Tax$8,984,249

Tax Rate / $100 AV$0.641

Police Department$4,732,133

Fire Department$2,943,293

Streets / Public Works$3,397,381

Parks & Recreation$1,671,027

Library Services$303,168

General Admin$4,516,012

Solid Waste / Refuse$1,839,160

Infrastructure Fund$0

Total Expenditures$20,331,956

Surplus / (Deficit)−$1,381,292

🌱 Proposed — No Police · No Sheriff Contract

Total Revenue$18,053,640

Ad Valorem Tax (−10%)$8,087,225

Tax Rate / $100 AV$0.577

Police Department$0 — Eliminated

Fire Department$2,943,293

Streets / Public Works$3,397,381 +Infra

Parks & Recreation$1,671,027 +Infra

Library Services$303,168 +Infra

General Admin$4,516,012

Solid Waste / Refuse$1,839,160

Infrastructure Fund (new)$2,000,000 ▲

Total Expenditures$17,599,823

Surplus / (Deficit)+$453,817

Waterfall & Trajectory

Fiscal Waterfall — Policy Impact Steps

Magnitude of each change from current to proposed scenario

10-Year Cumulative Surplus / (Deficit)

Running total under each scenario at 2% revenue growth · 2.5% cost inflation

Department Spending: FY26 → FY27 Adj → Proposed

Top 6 departments — FY26 actuals, FY27 inflation-adjusted, and proposed scenario

Dissolution position: Eliminating police ($4,732,133 FY27 adj) and cutting the tax rate 10% (−$897,024) frees $3,835,109. Allocating $2M to the infrastructure fund leaves a $453,817 annual surplus — reversing the $1.38M structural deficit. No other department budget is reduced.

Full Service Budget Comparison Table

Department / Service	FY26 Adopted	FY27 Adj (+2.5%)	Proposed FY27	$ Change	% Change	Status
🚔 Police Department	$4617K	$4732K	$0K	-$4732K	-100.0%	Eliminated
🔥 Fire Department	$2872K	$2943K	$2943K	—	0%	Stable
🛣️ Streets / Public Works	$3315K	$3397K	$3397K	—	0%	+ Infra
🌳 Parks & Recreation	$1630K	$1671K	$1671K	—	0%	+ Infra
🏛️ General Admin	$4406K	$4516K	$4516K	—	0%	Stable
♻️ Solid Waste / Refuse	$1794K	$1839K	$1839K	—	0%	Stable
📐 Planning & Inspections	$615K	$630K	$630K	—	0%	Stable
📚 Library Services	$296K	$303K	$303K	—	0%	+ Infra
🤝 Senior Center / Social	$293K	$300K	$300K	—	0%	Stable
🏗️ Infrastructure Fund	$0K	$0K	$2000K	+$2000K	New	New Fund
TOTAL	$19.84M	$20.33M	$17.60M	-$2.73M	-13.4%

Infrastructure Fund 10-Year Projection

$2M Annual Infrastructure Fund — Parks, Roads & Library (FY2027–2036)

Starts $2M · reduces $250K/yr to $1M floor (FY2031) · then inflates 2.5%/yr · 10-yr total: $12.57M

FY27 Tax-Supported Debt Schedule

Debt Instrument	Payoff	Principal	Interest	FY27 Payment
2017 "A" Bond Loan (Theatre District)	FY 2032	$825,765	$126,371	$952,136
2013 FCB Fire Station 2 (USDA refi.)	FY 2032	$79,160	$15,361	$94,521
TOTAL		$904,925	$141,732	$1,046,657

Sensitivity context: Ad valorem revenue ($8.98M) = 47.4% of FY27 general fund. Tax base grew 1.51% YOY to $1,422,943,103 (Halifax Co. Tax Office, 4/13/2026). One cent generates $140,160. Charts below show proposed scenario (no police, $0.577 rate) under varying revenue growth and volatility assumptions.

Monte Carlo Revenue Volatility — 500 Draws

Revenue Volatility Band vs. Expenditure Trend (Proposed Scenario)

P10 / Median / P90 revenue paths · 1.5% annual growth · ±4% volatility · 500 draws · orange dashed = expenditure

10-Year Sensitivity Scenarios

Growth Scenario	Yr 1 Revenue	Yr 5 Revenue	Yr 10 Revenue	10-Yr Cumulative	Sustainability
Strong +4%	$18.78M	$21.12M	$25.70M	$19.58M	Strong Surplus
Moderate +2%	$18.41M	$19.54M	$21.58M	$0.50M	Surplus
Baseline +1.5%	$18.32M	$19.16M	$20.64M	$-3.95M	Marginal
Flat 0%	$18.05M	$18.05M	$18.05M	$-16.64M	Risk Zone
Mild -1%	$17.87M	$17.34M	$16.49M	$-24.55M	Risk Zone
Severe -3%	$17.51M	$15.98M	$13.72M	$-39.16M	Risk Zone

Property Tax Rate Scenarios (Halifax Co. Tax Office)

Tax Rate / $100 AV	$0.641 Current	$0.577 Proposed	$0.651	$0.661	$0.700
Annual Levy (98.5%)	$8,984,249	$8,087,225	$9,124,409	$9,264,569	$9,811,943
vs. Current	—	−$897,024	+$140,160	+$280,320	+$826,943

Data & Methodology: Base population FY2027 estimated at 14,490 based on 2026 estimate of 14,573 at −0.55%/yr trend (World Population Review, 2026). Current scenario continues the established −0.55%/yr decline. Proposed scenarios model the net effect of three forces: (1) a 10% tax rate cut improving affordability (+0.15%/yr); (2) $2M→$1M infrastructure investment in parks, roads, and library improving quality of life (+0.10–0.30%/yr as investments mature); and (3) a public safety perception risk during transition (−0.20%/yr Yr 1–2, fading by Yr 3). Rice University research (2022) found disbanding city police departments has no effect on overall crime rates, supporting the optimistic recovery assumption.

Population Trajectories FY2027–2036

Projected Population — Both Scenarios

Current (police retained, −0.55%/yr) vs. Proposed optimistic & pessimistic · Base: 14,490 (FY2027)

Cumulative Population Change from FY2027 Base

Net persons gained or lost relative to FY2027 starting population of 14,490

Per-Capita Government Revenue Burden

Annual Government Revenue Cost Per Resident

Lower per-capita cost = more affordable city government. Proposed scenario cuts rate 10% reducing burden despite smaller population.

Assumptions & Scenario Drivers

🏛️ Current Scenario — Police Retained

Baseline annual growth rate	−0.55%
10-year population loss	-702 residents
FY2036 population	13,788
Tax rate	$0.641 (unchanged)
Infrastructure investment	None (no fund)
10-yr fiscal position	Structural deficit
Key driver	Halifax Co. out-migration

🌱 Proposed Scenario — Police Dissolved

Positive Drivers
Tax rate cut (10%) → affordability	+0.15%/yr
Infra: parks, roads, library (mature)	+0.10–0.30%/yr
Fiscal surplus → bond stability	+0.05%/yr
Risk / Negative Driver
Safety perception gap (Yr 1–2)	−0.20%/yr
Crime impact (Rice Univ. 2022)	No significant change
Optimistic FY2036 population	14,068 (+280 vs current)
Pessimistic FY2036 population	13,781 (-7 vs current)

Year-by-Year Population & Per-Capita Fiscal Data

Year	Current Pop.	Proposed (Opt)	Proposed (Pes)	Δ vs Current (Opt)	Δ vs Current (Pes)	Cur. Rev/Capita	Prop. Rev/Capita
FY2027	14,490	14,425	14,381	-65	-109	$1,308	$1,252
FY2028	14,410	14,360	14,281	-50	-129	$1,341	$1,282
FY2029	14,331	14,317	14,195	-14	-136	$1,376	$1,312
FY2030	14,252	14,281	14,124	+29	-128	$1,411	$1,342
FY2031	14,174	14,245	14,060	+71	-114	$1,447	$1,372
FY2032	14,096	14,210	14,004	+114	-92	$1,484	$1,403
FY2033	14,018	14,174	13,948	+156	-70	$1,522	$1,434
FY2034	13,941	14,139	13,892	+198	-49	$1,561	$1,467
FY2035	13,865	14,103	13,837	+238	-28	$1,601	$1,500
FY2036	13,788	14,068	13,781	+280	-7	$1,643	$1,534

⚠️ Interpretive caution: Population projections are modeled estimates with significant uncertainty. The optimistic scenario requires the perception risk to resolve within 2–3 years and infrastructure investments to demonstrably improve quality of life. The pessimistic scenario reflects a prolonged safety-perception effect. Both scenarios assume no sheriff contract is signed. Neither scenario materially changes the fiscal surplus calculation, as the tax base is tied to assessed property values (which move more slowly than population). The 1.51% YOY increase in Halifax County assessed value (FY2026→FY2027) suggests property values have been more resilient than population counts.

City Manager Tax Rate Scenarios — Population Impact

Context: City Manager Traynham's FY27 budget message (May 5, 2026) identifies six tax rate scenarios above the current $0.641 rate, each generating incremental ad valorem revenue. These are modeled below against the police dissolution scenario at $0.577 — the only scenario that eliminates the structural deficit. Each cent increase above $0.641 adds ~$140,160 in ad valorem revenue per Halifax Co. Tax Office projections but also applies additional out-migration pressure of approximately 0.03%/yr per cent increase, compounding the existing −0.55%/yr baseline decline.

All-Scenario Master Comparison

Scenario	Tax Rate	AV Revenue	FY27 Surplus	10-Yr Cumulative	Pop FY2027	Pop FY2036	10-Yr Pop Δ	Fiscal Status
🌱 Dissolution — $0.577	$0.577	$8,087,225	+$453,817	+$8,378,439	14,490	14,068	−422	Surplus
🏛️ $0.641 Current	$0.641	$8,984,249	$-1,381,292	$-22,457,480	14,490	13,788	-702	Deficit
🏛️ $0.651 (+1¢)	$0.651	$9,124,409	$-1,241,132	$-20,956,702	14,490	13,751	-739	Deficit
🏛️ $0.661 (+2¢)	$0.661	$9,264,569	$-1,100,972	$-19,455,926	14,490	13,714	-776	Deficit
🏛️ $0.671 (+3¢)	$0.671	$9,404,729	$-960,812	$-17,955,150	14,490	13,676	-814	Deficit
🏛️ $0.681 (+4¢)	$0.681	$9,544,889	$-820,652	$-16,454,372	14,490	13,639	-851	Deficit
🏛️ $0.700 (+5.9¢)	$0.700	$9,811,943	$-553,598	$-13,594,866	14,490	13,569	-921	Deficit

Scenario Assumption & Driver Matrix

Driver	Dissolution $0.577	$0.641 Current	$0.651 (+1¢)	$0.661 (+2¢)	$0.671 (+3¢)	$0.681 (+4¢)	$0.700 (+5.9¢)
Tax Rate / $100 AV	$0.577	$0.641	$0.651	$0.661	$0.671	$0.681	$0.700
Ad Valorem Revenue (FY27)	$8,087K	$8,984K	$9,124K	$9,265K	$9,405K	$9,545K	$9,812K
Police Budget	$0 (Dissolved)	$4,732K	$4,732K	$4,732K	$4,732K	$4,732K	$4,732K
Sheriff Contract	None	None	None	None	None	None	None
Infrastructure Fund	$2M→$1M	None	None	None	None	None	None
Structural Balance FY27	+$454K	−$1,381K	−$1,241K	−$1,101K	−$961K	−$821K	−$554K
Affordability Impact	Rate ↓10%	Baseline	Rate ↑1.6%	Rate ↑3.1%	Rate ↑4.7%	Rate ↑6.2%	Rate ↑9.2%
Population Driver	↑ Lower taxes	Baseline	↓ Slightly	↓ Moderate	↓ Moderate	↓ More	↓ Most
FY2036 Population Est.	14068	13788	13751	13714	13676	13639	13569
10-Year Fiscal Outcome	+$8.4M surplus	$-22.5M deficit	$-21.0M deficit	$-19.5M deficit	$-18.0M deficit	$-16.5M deficit	$-13.6M deficit

Annual Surplus / (Deficit) — All Scenarios FY2027–2036

Annual Fiscal Balance — All 7 Scenarios

Dissolution $0.577 (green filled) is the only scenario achieving structural balance · All tax-hike scenarios remain in structural deficit throughout the 10-year window

Cumulative Surplus / (Deficit) — All Scenarios

10-year running total · Dissolution produces +$8.4M vs. −$13.6M to −$22.5M for tax-hike scenarios

Population Trajectories — All Scenarios

Higher tax rates compound existing −0.55%/yr out-migration · Dissolution + infra investment moderates decline

Year-by-Year Fiscal Balance — All Scenarios

Year	Dissolution $0.577	$0.641 Current	$0.651 (+1¢)	$0.661 (+2¢)	$0.671 (+3¢)	$0.681 (+4¢)	$0.700 (+5.9¢)
FY2027	$+454K	$-1381K	$-1241K	$-1101K	$-961K	$-821K	$-554K
FY2028	$+635K	$-1555K	$-1412K	$-1270K	$-1128K	$-985K	$-714K
FY2029	$+813K	$-1735K	$-1590K	$-1446K	$-1301K	$-1157K	$-882K
FY2030	$+986K	$-1921K	$-1775K	$-1628K	$-1482K	$-1335K	$-1056K
FY2031	$+1156K	$-2115K	$-1967K	$-1818K	$-1669K	$-1520K	$-1237K
FY2032	$+1045K	$-2317K	$-2166K	$-2015K	$-1863K	$-1712K	$-1425K
FY2033	$+981K	$-2525K	$-2372K	$-2219K	$-2065K	$-1912K	$-1620K
FY2034	$+862K	$-2742K	$-2586K	$-2431K	$-2275K	$-2119K	$-1823K
FY2035	$+788K	$-2967K	$-2809K	$-2651K	$-2493K	$-2335K	$-2033K
FY2036	$+659K	$-3199K	$-3039K	$-2879K	$-2718K	$-2558K	$-2252K
10-Yr Cumulative	$+8.38M	$-22.46M	$-20.96M	$-19.46M	$-17.96M	$-16.45M	$-13.59M

⚠️ Key finding: None of the six City Manager–proposed tax rate increases (ranging from +1¢ to +5.9¢) closes the structural deficit. Even the maximum $0.700 rate still produces a −$553,598 deficit in FY27 and a −$13.6M cumulative 10-year deficit. The only modeled path to structural balance is police dissolution at the reduced $0.577 rate, which produces a +$453,817 FY27 surplus and +$8.4M cumulative 10-year surplus — while also applying less affordability pressure on population retention. Population modeling assumptions: −0.55%/yr baseline decline (World Population Review 2026); additional −0.03%/yr per cent of tax increase above $0.641; dissolution scenario benefits from +0.15%/yr affordability gain, +0.10–0.30%/yr infrastructure quality-of-life gains, and transient −0.20%/yr safety-perception offset (Yr 1–2 only, per Rice University 2022 disbanding research).

Peer-Reviewed Research · Journal of Urban Economics

"Should Cities Disband Their Police Departments?"

Richard T. Boylan · Rice University, Department of Economics

Journal of Urban Economics, Vol. 130, 2022 · Article 103460

🔗 View Full Study
doi:10.1016/j.jue.2022.103460

Received: Oct 22, 2021
Available online: May 25, 2022
JEL: H41 · H72 · H76 · H77 · K42

Abstract

This paper finds that disbanding police departments leads to fewer police-related deaths, fewer reported crimes, and lower law enforcement expenditures. However, the number of crimes reported by the sheriff for the entire county increases by an amount commensurate to the decrease in crimes reported by cities that disbanded. Furthermore, disbanding is associated with an increase in county sheriff spending which offsets city savings. Thus, disbanding police departments does not appear to impact overall crime, shifts responsibility for law enforcement onto other governments, and reduces the available information about city crimes.

Key Empirical Findings

💰 Law Enforcement Spending

−$70 per capita
(difference-in-differences)

Savings increase over time: −22% at disbanding, −49% after 5 yrs, −104% after 25 yrs
97% of estimate from cities that never disbanded vs. those that did
Early savings smaller due to outstanding pension obligations

📊 Crime Reporting & Rates

−48.5pts likelihood of
reporting crime

Among cities that do report: −118 crimes per 10,000 people
County-level total crimes unchanged — crimes shift to sheriff's tally
Homicide counts (NCHS data) show no increase — true crime unaffected

⚖️ Police-Related Deaths & Safety

−58% police-related
deaths

−3.9 per million (from avg. of 6.67 per million)
Reduction grows: −4 to −14 deaths per million over years 4–9
Traffic fatalities: statistically insignificant change (−1 per 100,000)

County-Level Effects & Fiscal Externalities

Sheriff Spending Offset

When a city outsources entirely to the county sheriff, sheriff spending increases by $90.80 per capita — fully offsetting the city's savings. This is a critical finding for Roanoke Rapids: a dissolution without a sheriff contract avoids this offset, but requires Halifax County to absorb coverage costs independently.

Metric	Effect
Sheriff spending if entire county outsources	+$90.8/capita
Total county law enforcement spending	No sig. change
Sheriff-reported crimes (county, entire outsource)	+210.7/10,000
Total county crimes (city + sheriff combined)	No sig. change
County homicide rate	No sig. change

Fiscal & Transparency Trade-offs

The study identifies two key trade-offs cities must weigh beyond simple cost savings:

Transparency Loss: Cities that outsource are 48.5 percentage points less likely to report crime data to the Uniform Crime Report. This can make cities ineligible for federal grants and reduces public accountability.

Personnel Flexibility: Disbanding allows cities to remove all officers — bypassing civil service and collective bargaining protections — enabling renegotiation of wages and benefits (as seen in Camden, NJ).

No Scale Economies: No evidence of increasing or decreasing returns to scale in policing — consolidating into a larger agency neither improves nor worsens efficiency on aggregate.

Methodology & Data

Sample

521 treated cities that disbanded (1973–2017) vs. 9,241 control cities. Cities with population 1,000–200,000. Panel spans 1972–2019 depending on outcome.

Estimators

Two-way fixed effects DiD + Callaway & Sant'Anna (2021) staggered DiD (relaxes parallel trends, allows time-varying effects) + Goodman-Bacon decomposition.

Data Sources

U.S. Census of State & Local Finances · Uniform Crime Reports · Fatal Encounters Database · FARS Traffic Fatalities · NCHS Homicide Data · Decennial Census / ACS · BEA County Income

Robustness

Placebo tests confirm disbanding does not reduce fire, roads, or health & welfare spending — ruling out general fiscal distress as the driver. Pre-trend coefficients near disbanding mostly insignificant.

Direct Relevance to Roanoke Rapids

Supporting the Dissolution Scenario: This study's central finding — that disbanding does not increase overall crime and reduces police-related deaths by 58% — provides the primary empirical basis for the optimistic population and fiscal projections in this dashboard's dissolution scenario. The study's 521 city natural experiment (1973–2017) is the largest and most rigorous analysis of this policy option to date.

Halifax County Sheriff Consideration: The study finds that when cities dissolve without a paid sheriff contract, Halifax County absorbs coverage with no aggregate crime increase — but sheriff spending rises (~$90.80/capita countywide). Under the proposed scenario, Roanoke Rapids (pop. ~14,490) would shift approximately $1.32M in coverage costs to Halifax County. The dashboard's scenario assumes no sheriff contract, meaning this externality falls on Halifax County taxpayers — a political and intergovernmental factor the City Council should weigh.

Transparency & Grants Risk: The study's finding that outsourcing cities are 48.5 points less likely to report UCR crime data is relevant to Roanoke Rapids grant eligibility. Federal public safety and community development grants often require UCR reporting. The City should negotiate crime data reporting as a condition of any future Halifax County service agreement.

Full Citation: Boylan, R.T. (2022). Should cities disband their police departments? Journal of Urban Economics, 130, 103460. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2022.103460 · JEL Classification: H41, H72, H76, H77, K42 · Keywords: Police, Outsourcing, Crime, Spending · © 2022 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.